Recent calculations of the flight path of the massive asteroid Apophis indicate that its speed has increased, the trajectory has changed and the chance of a collision with our planet in 2068 has become quite real.
Apophis, named after the god of chaos, could very well hit Earth in 2068. The potential impact would be equivalent to an explosion of 880 million tons of TNT.
Astronomer Dave Tholen and his colleagues confirmed the detection of a small Yarkovsky acceleration on the asteroid's surface. The Yarkovsky effect is when an asteroid or celestial body changes its orbit due to a small thermal shock.
This could have happened either due to the release of gases, or due to the gravitational movement of celestial bodies, including the Sun and the Earth. All this can cause a small thermal reaction that can change the trajectory of the asteroid.
Apophis was first sighted on June 19, 2004 by experts at Kitt Peak National Observatory in Arizona. Astronomers found the asteroid accelerated when they observed it with the Subaru Telescope earlier this year.
According to Dave Tolan, the odds of Apophis hitting Earth in 2068 is one in 530,000:
“We've known for some time that a collision with the Earth is not possible during the close approach of 2029. However, the new observations we got with the Subaru telescope earlier this year were good enough to reveal Yarkovsky acceleration at Apophis. They show that the asteroid is drifting out of pure gravity by about 170 meters per year, enough to keep the 2068 collision scenario in action. '
The University of Hawaii said in a statement that all asteroids must re-emit as heat the energy they absorb from sunlight in order to maintain thermal equilibrium, a process that slightly alters the asteroid's orbit.
Before the discovery of Yarkovsky's acceleration at Apophis, astronomers believed that a potential collision with the Earth in 2068 was impossible. Further observations to clarify the amplitude of the Yarkovsky effect and how it affects the orbit of Apophis are ongoing.
Astronomers are confident that in the future they will be able to find out exactly whether there is a likelihood of an asteroid colliding with Earth. For example, NASA is developing a mission to fly to a metal asteroid, the cost of which is estimated at $ 10,000 quadrillion.
