Researchers from the University of Sydney said the coronavirus can only be managed if serious countermeasures are taken early in the epidemic. The news comes after the UK and India took nationwide action this week to tackle the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19).
A study in Sydney found that isolation measures are most effective when 80 to 90 percent of the country's population is isolated. These studies were conducted on a population of more than 25 million Australia. However, in doing so, they showed that insulation below 70 percent is likely to be useless. Here is what pandemic modeling expert Professor Mikhail Prokopenko said about this:
'If we want to control the spread of COVID-19 and not control us, at least 80 percent of the population must be isolated. Moreover, strict distancing measures must be observed for at least four months. '
“If 90 percent of the population follows the rules, then the duration of the quarantine could be 13 to 14 weeks, which means that if we start tomorrow, we can expect control of COVID-19 by July.”
“Conversely, if less than seventy percent of the population takes social distancing measures, we cannot stop the pandemic from spreading and any social distancing can become useless.”
According to Professor Prokopenko, there is an obvious trade-off between the measures taken and the duration of the illness. Tighter controls adopted in the early stages of an outbreak will shorten the duration of exposure to humans.
“Lax quarantine measures could mean a longer, more protracted and ineffective fight against COVID-19.”
China has already proven that lockdown measures are effective after the coronavirus first emerged in Hubei province last November. Entire cities were cut off from the outside world with no access by air, car, or rail.
Despite the fact that over the past four months, almost 82,000 have been infected in China, but now the authorities confirm for the second day in a row without infections. China's National Health Commission said all of the new cases were attributed to outsiders.
