In recent days, there have been reports of shoppers emptying supermarket shelves from Wuhan and Hong Kong to Singapore and Milan as the coronavirus spreads. This behavior is often referred to as 'panic buying'.
However, research shows that what is happening has nothing to do with panic. This is a perfectly rational response to the situation.
Disaster response.
Panic is one of the most unexplored and misinterpreted of all human behaviors. The general traditional understanding of the phenomenon is based on myth, not reality.
If we understand panic as a state of uncontrollable fear that leads to irrational behavior, then how people usually react in the face of a natural disaster is quite different.
It is widely believed that social law is violated in a disaster. In the Hollywood version, chaos ensues and people act in an illogical or unreasonable way. The reality is completely different.
Most studies reject the notion of 'disaster syndrome', which is described as a state of shock or mass panic. In real-life disasters, people usually adhere to principles of acceptable behavior, such as morality, loyalty, and respect for law and custom.
Planning ahead.
If we don't see panic, what do we see? Unlike most animals, humans can perceive some future threats and prepare for them. In the case of something like the coronavirus, one of the important factors is the speed at which information can be transmitted around the world.
We see empty streets in Wuhan and other cities where people cannot or do not want to go outside for fear of contracting the virus. Naturally, we want to prepare for the perceived threat of such destruction to our own communities.
Stocking up food and other supplies helps people feel some level of control over events. This is a logical thought process: if a virus enters your area, you want to be able to reduce your contact with other people, but also ensure that you can survive this hatching period.
The greater the perceived threat, the stronger the reaction will be. At this stage, the virus is considered to have an incubation period of up to 14 days, so people want to be prepared for isolation for at least 14 days.
Reasonable response.
Preparing for a period of isolation is not the result of extreme or irrational fear, but an expression of our ingrained coping mechanisms. Historically, we have had to defend ourselves against such phenomena as severe winters, crop failure or infectious diseases, without the help of modern social institutions and technologies.
Food stock is a valid answer. This indicates that citizens do not react helplessly to external circumstances, but instead think about the future and plan for a possible situation.
While part of this response is driven by self-reliance, it can also be herd behavior to some extent. Herd behavior is based on imitating what others are doing – this behavior can be a kind of conditional cooperation with others (for example, yawning).
The wrong side of caution.
A lot of uncertainty surrounds disasters, which means that all the best decisions are made on the basis of perceived threats, not the disaster itself. Because of this uncertainty, people tend to overreact. We tend to be risk-averse and strive to prepare for the worst, not the best.
When it comes to storing (or accumulating) large quantities of goods, we don't know how much we'll need, because we don't know how long the crisis will last.
Accordingly, we are prone to mistakes and buy too much, not too little. This is the natural response of a rational person who faces future uncertainty and strives to ensure the survival of their family.
The importance of emotions.
Buying – which can lead to empty supermarket shelves – may seem like an irrational reaction to emotion. But emotions are not irrational: they help us decide how to focus our attention.
Emotions allow people to deal with problems longer, take care of things, and be more resilient. They are an instinctive element of human behavior that we often overlook when trying to understand how people act.
Changes in individual behavior can have profound consequences. For example, a supermarket usually organizes its supply chain and inventory based on average consumption.
These systems do not handle large fluctuations in demand very well. So when demand rises – as has been the case in parts of China, Italy and elsewhere – the result is empty shelves.
Should I stock up?
You do not need to rush at this very minute to buy several dozen cans of canned food.
But you can put together a shopping list and steadily collect what you need. Done this way, it gives stores time to restock and does not leave the shelves empty.
David A. Savage, Associate Professor in the Department of Behavioral Economics, Newcastle Business School, University of Newcastle, and Benno Torgler, Professor at the Business School, Queensland University of Technology.
This article was published by The Conversation.
Sources: Photo: Eneas De Troya / Flickr / CC-BY-2.0
