In a new study published in the journal Science, a group of researchers from Harvard argues that “long-term or intermittent social distancing may be necessary until 2022” due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.
After analyzing computer models of several scenarios, they concluded that lifting the current restrictions too quickly or too early could lead to a delay in the peak of the epidemic and possibly even more dire consequences.
“Additional interventions, including increased intensive care capacity and effective therapeutic treatment, will support the success of social distancing and accelerate the acquisition of herd immunity,” the researchers write in the article, warning that “re-infection may be possible soon. In 2024. '
At the same time, longer periods of severe social distancing can actually prove harmful. In a model that included strict social distancing measures, “it was so effective that there was little or no immunity in the population.”
In fact, 'in all scenarios, the outbreak occurred when simulated social distancing measures were canceled.' To solve this problem, the researchers suggest a 'over and over' or 'intermittent distance' approach that occurs at regular intervals.
Despite their predictions, the researchers admit that some fundamental questions remain to be answered in order for these models to become more accurate. Is the virus spreading faster than in summer? How long does immunity last after infection? How will the virus interact with other viruses that cause cold symptoms?
However, according to the researchers, the chances of completely eradicating the virus once and for all are slim. The world will likely experience a cyclical recurrence of cases every year, two years, or every couple of years.
The research is published in the journal Science.
Sources: Photo: Joseph Prezioso / AFP
