Undoubtedly, the international community takes this issue very seriously, since it should be borne in mind that the total number of deaths from the COVID-19 epidemic already far exceeds the deaths from SARS in the early 2000s.
The World Health Organization has announced an outbreak of a public health emergency of international concern, researchers around the world are furiously working on vaccines for COVID-19, and governments, including the US and UK, have allocated additional funds to stimulate research and development.
However, even if the international response to COVID-19 was relatively strong, it can rightfully be considered too late when the epidemic has already begun.
This is a mistake that we must not repeat.
As researchers in the field of global health, we explore the full societal value of vaccinations and other interventions in the fight against infectious diseases. Given the enormous costs associated with epidemics, it is vital that we start working to prevent the next outbreak, even as the world is battling COVID-19.
Predictable scenario.
What is remarkable about the current situation is its predictability.
It was predictable that the outbreak would result from contact between humans and animals – and that bats could be carriers. It was predictable that its epicenter would be in a densely populated urban area and quickly spread through international air travel.
And it was even predictable that an unknown pathogen would be as likely to cause an epidemic as a known one.
As with SARS and the Zika virus, the pathogen responsible for the current epidemic was off the radar until it started wreaking havoc in China and beyond.
It was also predictable that a rapidly progressing epidemic would have significant and widespread consequences for health, economy and society.
Less than two months after the outbreak began, China's health care system is already under heavy strain, and Wuhan, in particular, is struggling to provide quality care to coronavirus patients. In addition, it can interfere with the treatment of other conditions.
The economic impact includes severe disruptions to manufacturing, supply chains, retail sales, international travel, and education.
The overall costs of this epidemic are already significant and could become much higher.
The inevitability of epidemics.
The predictability of the current situation reflects the inevitability of outbreaks and epidemics.
We may not be able to say with certainty where and when they will occur – or what the causative agent of the disease will be – but we know they will. There are also many reasons to believe that their frequency will increase.
Despite the slowdown in global population growth, it continues to grow rapidly in the most economically and politically unstable regions of the world. Increasing urbanization is leading to the proliferation of large, dense settlements that act like giant Petri dishes for infectious diseases. And an aging population increases the proportion of people more susceptible to infections and disease.
The geographic range of some pathogens and important disease vectors such as mosquitoes is expanding due to climate change. And humans continue to encroach on animal habitats, increasing the likelihood of the spread of alien species.
International travel continues to become more common, and globalization ensures that the economic impact of the outbreak anywhere will take place in remote corners of the planet.
Preparing for the worst.
Given all the costs of epidemics – and all the factors that contribute to their recurrence – sustained and massive investment in organizations and activities dedicated to outbreak preparedness, prevention, mitigation and response can pay enormous dividends.
The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation, the alliance funding and coordinating the development of new vaccines, certainly deserves significant funding, as does the development of vaccine platforms in general.
In addition, more funding for new antimicrobial drugs and better diagnostics are desperately needed. Strengthening the surveillance of pathogens in both humans and animals is another urgent task
Perhaps what is lacking more than funding is a sufficient level of coordination among many actors in an extensive network of international organizations responsible for controlling and responding to infectious disease outbreaks.
The fragmented nature of the global health system creates an opportunity for significant scientific and functional gaps, as well as wasteful duplication of effort.
We have previously advocated the creation of a Global Technical Council on Infectious Disease Threats to improve collaboration and coordination among organizations, conduct necessary research, and provide high-level evidence-based recommendations for managing global risks.
Such a council would be composed of experts from a wide range of disciplines – including epidemiology, vaccinology, public policy and economics – and could either be linked to WHO or be autonomous.
The bottom line is that additional and sustainable resources are needed to prevent or at least mitigate the next outbreak and its impact – whether caused by another coronavirus, hemorrhagic fever like Ebola, pandemic influenza, or an as-yet undiscovered pathogen.
These measures can be costly, but the next outbreak will be more expensive.
David E. Bloom Professor of Economics and Demography, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and Daniel Cadarett, Research Fellow, Harvard T.H. School of Public Health. Chan.
This article is reprinted from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Sources: Photo: Xinhua
