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Preventive Action Center provides an overview of likely next year’s events One of the most widely acclaimed parties President Obama’s election campaign was his often repeated a promise to “rally the nation at home” during its second term. This goal was set by many presidents before their re-election, but most often this is prevented by unforeseen circumstances in the world. In the Middle East at risk there is a warehouse of Syrian chemical weapons; in Asia China’s territorial disputes with the US ally under the treaty becomes more and more intense; in North Africa growth and collaboration al Qaeda-inspired extremists could create a haven for international terrorism. President Obama and his new the foreign policy administration cannot plan Prevent or contain all crises with which the United States may face in 2013. With the upcoming small cut defense and foreign policy spending keep the spotlight on possible events that require vigilance from leading politicians. Preventive Overview priorities from the Center for Preventive Action aims to identify probable unforeseen circumstances and rank them as per their the potential impact on US interests, and the likelihood of their appearance in 2013. Long-standing readers of our annual reviews notice changes in our methodology. The first time we used to review crowdsourcing (engaging the public through the Internet; approx. mixednews.ru) to identify 30 possible unforeseen events that are reflected in this review. Using social networks (Facebook, Twitter, Quora, etc.) we got hundreds assumptions from all participants via the Internet, which allowed get around media filters that tend to focus on only on the topics of the day. For example, if you rely on the media to anticipate the recent riots in Mali, you would miss the rage widespread dissatisfaction with corrupt and incompetent government in Bamako before the recent uprising and coup. By compared to the 2012 review, this year’s most notable change is the addition of ranking by probability. Earlier we asked respondents to rank thirty possible events based on their potential impact; however, by integrating the probability politicians now have a full range of the most relevant strategic priorities. We introduced this additional rating with the full realization that international crises are known to hard to foresee. Even the U.S. intelligence agency with a common annual budget of $ 75 billion was taken aback by the most important The geopolitical event of the past decade: the Arab spring. Although director of national intelligence James Klapper gave for intelligence agency status B + or A- for the Arab Spring, many would rightly call such an estimate underestimated. We got expert evaluations outside the intelligence agency by interviewing over 1,500 American civil servants, university scholars and forecasting analysts to rank the probability and the potential impact of thirty possible events received from using prior crowdsourcing. Many likely events level I (e.g. high preventive priorities) that appeared in last year’s review, still remain, which speaks of their stubbornness. For example, the prospect of a major military incident with China with the participation of US forces and allies has not disappeared over the past twelve months. Rather, due to the increased tension between China and Japan over Senkaku / Diaoyu Islands, only a threat intensified, with faint signs of improvement on the horizon. At the same Other level I events are expected in 2013. For instance, there are signs of action on the Iranian nuclear crisis military or diplomatic means. The 2012 review also emphasized the possibility of “unleashing a broad civil violence in Syria. “Unfortunately, today this scenario has become reality, and the instability in Syria seems to be far from completion. In this regard, the intensification of the Syrian civil war was the only likely event of this year’s review, which at the same time has a high probability and high potential impact on US interests. Another troubling aspect Syrian crisis – the possibility of acquiring chemical weapons non-state actors – also received level I in the ranking. President Obama’s warning that the use of such weapons may cross the “red line” shows that the United States can be drawn into a deep and protracted conflict. But not all Level I events still remain. Heavy North Korean the crisis, for example, fell to level II (i.e., preventive priorities intermediate level). The country has a change of leader, Kim Jong-un less need to assert oneself to the defense department countries through provocations against South Korea. Also others events have shifted to level II. Constant terrorist Boko Haram’s activity and harsh responses from Nigerian forces security increased the likelihood that Nigeria could face increased political instability. Events from lowest priority are level III. They range from outbreaks of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Nagorny Karabakh before renewed violence in connection with elections in Kenya. we we understand that politicians can safely ignore possible low priority events. However, the possible consequences of events level III – conflict between Sudan and South Sudan – show why not do it. Sudanese Civil War Dies about two million people, and her permission was diplomatic a triumph of the United States. Although not compromised here US main interests, renewed war would destroy diplomatic gain and would probably lead to further humanitarian disaster. Since the review itself is limited thirty possible events, we also asked the respondents add possible crises that we missed. Here are some noteworthy suggestions: – the unleashing of a third Palestinian intifada – widespread unrest in China caused by dissatisfaction with economic prospects and political reforms – the escalation of the US-Iranian military conflict in The Persian Gulf – crisis on the Sino-Indian border – the emergence of instability and violence in Ethiopia in connection with the elections – riots in Cuba after Fidel Castro’s death and / or loss capacity by Raul Castro – widespread political unrest in Venezuela after the death or disability of Hugo Chavez How shows a review, there is no shortage of crises to consider the Obama administration. Even if the president tries to tackle his inner priorities, he cannot ignore warning signs from abroad about emergency situations. Authors: Mika Zenko – employee of the Center for Preventive Actions at Council on Foreign Relations. Andrew Miller participated in Agency for International Development projects in Iraq and Afghanistan and He is an analyst at the Center for Preventive Action of the Council for international relations.
Barack Obama War China Crisis Syria USA
