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They need people who can foresee world events. better than intelligence professionals do.
Experts in Psychology and National Security they are trying to find among ordinary Americans “superpredictionists” – that is, people who are able to foresee world events better, what do intelligence specialists do.
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Three thousand are already taking part in the project “Sober calculation” human. All of them expressed their opinion on a number of current events, and also tried to predict their outcomes and effects.
Experts admitted that they were extremely “surprised” by the accuracy forecasts, although the main source of information for most The participants served Google.
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Participants were asked to forecast for a range of global events, including the episode when the Egyptian military with tanks stopped in front of a presidential palace in cairo, egypt.
To take part in the project, just fill out profile on the website. A bachelor’s degree is welcome, however, the absence of such an education is not an obstacle. The main requirement for candidates is curiosity and interest in development world events. Then the project participants answer questions, which are published once a week or two in the same place on the website and Submit their forecasts electronically.
Elaine Rich is one of the participants in the project. She believes the key to success lies in the absence of any pressure. “By profession I’m an ordinary pharmacist, “she said.
“I don’t depend on anyone, no one knows my name, and I’m in In any case, I do not sacrifice my professional reputation. Exactly this anonymity allows me to freely express what I seems true. ”
According to one of the reports, forecasts made by participants the project “Sober calculation” quite often are closer to truth than forecasts of intelligence professionals having access to classified information. Those who are somehow familiar with experimental results, shocked by their success and accuracy forecasts of ordinary people.
One participant admitted that he was using nothing but Google, in order to come to the right conclusions and make accurate forecasts.
They say that the experiment has already allowed to assemble a team “superpredictionists,” whose forecasts are 30 percent more accurately than forecasts of intelligence officers who passed special training and having access to classified information.
The experiment is conducted at the University of Pennsylvania and Berkeley University (California) and has been going on for three years, and the recruitment of new members is still ongoing.
Psychologists Philip Tetlock (author of the book) lead the project. “Professional Political Judgment”), Barbara Mullers (specialist in forecasting and decision making) and Do Moore (self-confidence specialist).
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Participants expressed their forecasts related to a number of modern problems, including prospects for economic development.
In addition, the team of specialists working in this project includes experts psychologists, economists, statisticians, designers interface and computer science representatives.
The Sober Calculation project is part of another, larger A project called Aggregate Performance Assessment collective mind “and is sponsored by the American Intelligence Advanced Intelligence Agencies.
The goal of the project is formulated as “a significant increase in accuracy and the timeliness of forecasts relating to a wide range of events, with help develop advanced technologies that will enable more weight judgments and combine the conclusions of analysts. ”
The project “Sober calculation” is not classified and, according to researchers, its results will be published in scientific magazines and available to all comers.
