US National Intelligence Council makes “forecast future ” Photo from open sources National Intelligence Council of the United States made a forecast in which he identified the main factors and key processes that may determine future events. At preparing the forecast, the Council took help research centers, consulting firms, scientific institutions. Hundreds of experts working and not working for the government, both in the US and outside the country, has adopted participation in the development of the forecast. According to the forecast, by 2025 not will remain a single “international community” consisting of nation states. Power is more dispersed between new players playing for their own rules, as well as the risk that traditional western alliances will weaken will increase. Many countries will be attracted more likely by the Chinese development model, than western models of political and economic development. such a transition would strengthen states such as Russia, which want to challenge the western order. USA will remain the only one a country superior in strength to others, but their dominance will weaken. Declining economic and military opportunities may force the US to make a number of complex compromises between priorities domestic and foreign policy. The need for US acted as regional stabilizer in the Middle East, although other external forces – Russia, China and India – will be play a greater role than even today. Terrorism is unlikely to fade to 2025, but its attractiveness could be reduced if economic growth in the Middle East continued, and unemployment among youth declined. Common technologies will fall into hands to terrorists who are active. If prices are oil and gas will remain high, the state power of the main exporters such as Russia and Iran will skyrocket, GDP At the same time, Russia can equal the GDP of Great Britain and France. At Russia has the potential to become richer, stronger and more in 2025 self-confident if she invests in human resources, will expand and diversify its economy and integrate into the world market. No other states are projected to rise to level of China, India and Russia and are unlikely to repeat the jumps of these countries. Other countries will lag even further in the economic sphere. Area Sub-Saharan Africa will remain most vulnerable to economic collapses, tensions in society, civil conflicts and political instability. By 2025, the income of many countries Latin America will rise to an average level, other states, especially such as Venezuela and Bolivia for the period under review, will be left behind, and some, like Haiti, will become even poorer and will be even less responsive. Overall latin America will lag behind Asia and other fast-growing regions in terms of economic competitiveness. IN the next twenty years Asia, Africa and Latin America may count on the growth of the entire population; in the West, the increase will be less than three percent. The USA will be an exception in the region aging populations in developed countries as they survive increasing birth rates and immigration. Likely to increase number of migrants wishing to move from dysfunctional to relatively favorable countries. The population in China, India, Iran, Japan, Russia, Western Europe, and the United States according to the schedule will be look like this: Photos from open sources Resource questions will come to the fore plan internationally. Unprecedented economic growth in worldwide – positive in many other aspects – will continue to put pressure on a number of critical strategic resources, including energy, food and water, and are projected to the coming ten years or slightly more demand will exceed supply from readily available sources. Oil and gas production by many traditional manufacturers is already declining. At others – China, India and Mexico – production is not in decline and ups. Number of countries able to expand significantly production will decline; oil and gas production will focus in unstable regions. Due to this and other factors in the world a fundamental shift in energy from oil to natural gas, coal and other substitutes. The World Bank predicts that by 2025 the need for food will increase by fifty percent as a result of world population growth, improving financial well-being and moving a growing average class to the western diet. Problems accessing persistent water sources reached a critical point, especially for agricultural needs, and the situation will only get worse due to rapid urbanization worldwide and population growth approximately 1.2 billion people in the next twenty years. Today, experts count 21 countries (total population is six hundred million people) who experience lack of either agricultural land or drinking water. Due to further population growth, it is predicted that by 2025 thirty-six countries with a population of about 1.4 billion people will fall into this category. Based on the materials of the report US National Intelligence Council.
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