Anatoly Wasserman: A bright future is inevitable will come. By 2020

Information technology will become so perfect that planned economy will be possible

Anatoly Wasserman: A brighter future will inevitably come. By 2020Photos from open sources

On the air of radio KP two smart people are discussing with listeners, where will mankind go further.

Wasserman:

– Hello. Today we have a famous publicist in the Arbor, founder of the society of the inevitability of a bright future Alex Sergeevich Kravetsky. I met Alexei Sergeyevich in Internet in quite interesting circumstances. In 1996, I published an article where mathematically proved the impossibility effective production planning with the then information technology, and Alexei Sergeyevich for a long time refuted this article, citing various planning methods, but ours with him joint analysis showed that in all these cases only private tasks, not general ones, so in this regard I seem to have him convinced. But he convinced me in another. I came to the conclusion that development of these same information technologies will make planned management is more effective than market in all respects by 2020 year. Since then, we have jointly explored that bright future, which should come, thanks, in particular, to information technology … I hope, Alexey, you’ll tell us more about what is it in this society.

Kravetsky:

– I have to say that the bright future is reduced to one a planned economy would be incorrect. A planned economy is an instrument to achieve the correct structure of society, but only one of the few tools, although, of course, very significant. IN first of all, a bright future is the nature of the relationship people among themselves as a whole. These are the goals for which they are oriented. If we take a modern society, in it, Of course, there are goals too. Interesting that when people are asked describe how they would imagine something that could call a bright future, many will define it through that which will not be there. But, of course, things that annoy, much easier to list than those things that I would like to see, but you never saw. However, if we wanted to describe the picture more consistently, I would start by identifying those things which, in my opinion, I would like to reach humanity. For me two key things are quite obvious. The first is social justice, largely expressed in the fact that in society there is no destitute … But most importantly – people have a decent standard of living, oh which they don’t really think about. And then their time is freed for the second important thing – namely, knowledge and, one might say, subjugation, for example, of space. Flying into space, in the far space, the study of the possibilities that science gives us – natural, social. This thing may seem to some minor and not very interesting. Someone will say that science let scientists do it, but here’s an interesting effect. When a person trying to do it, if he starts to succeed, he pretty quickly realizes that everything else is much less interesting. It can be enjoyable, it can be entertaining but science in this case gives a certain global goal, global occupation, and everything else is like seasoning to it.

Wasserman:

– Strictly speaking, science does not really interest everyone. I’ve seen enough people who, even being abandoned by force of circumstances in science, treat it only as to a means of earning bread. Although in our current society in Science, to put it mildly, will not earn Russia’s bread, but in Soviet times the time when science paid well, so many went to it only like a manger. So people who do not understand why they need science, to Unfortunately, while quite a lot, another thing is that for these people I can find my interesting activities, so I’m talking about the development society, I prefer to use a more general term – self improvement. Self-improvement and society, and each personality. Karl Marx in his 1844 economic manuscripts said that the better the society, the higher developed, the more free time for self-improvement it provides to every citizen. Subsequently, Joseph Vissarionovich Dzhugashvili in 1952, in the brochure “Economic problems of socialism in the USSR” clarified and noted that society should not only give free time, but also material means for self-improvement. Schools libraries, concert halls, gyms, hobby groups and etc. And, accordingly, self-improvement of each personality becomes the task of society as a whole. By the way, in the same work he calculated that socialism can be considered developed only when necessary working time – that which is necessary for life support Society – reduced to 30 hours a week. But the rest of the time will go to this very self-development and self improvement.

Kravetsky:

– Well, you correctly pointed to other sides of this very thing bright future societies – self-improvement too, certainly a very important thing. True, when I try to describe this thing as a whole, I use another word a bit – development. Why do I use the word “development”? Self-improvement is preparation, and preparation, of course, is also very important. Development involves not only preparation, but also the use of this business in practice of what a person has learned to do. If we take science, self-improvement is an increase in the level of education, and development as a whole also includes committing discoveries, building technologies based on them, and so on. Naturally, I did not name the third important factor – this is creativity, this an activity that is slightly less practical than scientific but, nevertheless, it is valuable in itself. People are pleased and rewarding in an environment in which there is a mass of cultural property.

Often there are descriptions of some more progressive society, which someone also calls a brighter future, as a kind of kingdom of such austerities. That is, when all people are busy pure productive labor, it’s nothing material, yes, if sort it out, and especially something spiritual is not necessary. And this is seen human progress. Say, music is all fun for some young and with the wind in my head. And cinema is entertainment for young … And books, too … In my opinion, such a description is in no way the gate does not climb. I do not see a bright future as a kind of kingdom austerities, I see him as a harmonious existence of people with focus on overall human progress.

Call from Michael:

– Hello. I am about a brighter future. Doesn’t it seem to you, that now reading out to youth all sorts of fantasy and so on, this is, in fact, an attempt to find some kind of model of society, which will be a bright future, because now our model society very well reminiscent of the Strugatsky brothers, where space to reach everyone …

Kravetsky:

“I agree with you in many ways.” The only thing. I would add some clarifications. It is rather not a search for a light device future, it is rather a search for some meaning in its present. Because when the environment, when the environment in which the person exists, is a mechanical representation some actions at work, and then mechanical execution some actions at home, it has a very depressing effect on a person impression, he wants some meaning, some purpose. Well many are looking for her in science fiction, someone else in fantasy. To man I want to live some kind of parallel life, because its present in many ways is not satisfied. In my opinion, so.

Call from Yuri Nikolaevich:

– Hello. Do you think people should not behavior just to take an example from animals? In the wild in my look, everything is harmoniously and correctly arranged.

Wasserman:

– If you will, I will answer. Fact that in the wild indeed, everything is harmonious. Rabbit eats grass, wolf eats a rabbit, a corpse of a wolf fertilizes grass – everything is closed, everything changes only by the power of natural evolution and everything is adapted to the fact that everyone is eating everyone. So, since humans are different from wolves with rabbits so that they can interact not only by mutual eating, people, accordingly, have not to take an example with nature, and build your nature. To the maximum extent adapted for the manifestation of those qualities that differ human from other animals.

Kravetsky:

– And I would like to add. I was interested in this topic, how much the psyche of higher animals is similar to the psyche of man. It turns out that in animals you can find almost all the qualities that a person has – even altruism. Only they are literally in its infancy. Man is so quantitatively different in these qualities from animals that we can talk about our qualitative difference from them. And for man natural existence I would not call harmonious. It’s still really one big lunch – natural life. In humans still existence may be associated with lunch, but life probably already can’t.

Wasserman:

– Well, it’s hard to manage without lunch …

Call from Alexander:

– Hello. That’s how we talk about society, humanity, about its development, but you do not admit that, let’s say, there are people who have reached a certain level of development and Is this world simply, let’s say, already incomprehensible, uninteresting to them? Here Let’s say we and ants. Here comes a man to an anthill – well, picking a wand there … in the same way, ants are not interested, for example, man and his world. Do you suppose that there are already people certain development, which is simply not interesting to develop the rest of society, they already live in their own the world … Do you think such people exist? Or is it a fruit fantasies?

Kravetsky:

– This is not quite a figment of imagination. However, innate abilities in different people do not differ so much that they can considered as far away as an ant and a man. Still talent helps in development, but it does not replace training, it does not replaces education, etc. Therefore any person in unlike an ant, in theory, can catch up with any other person.

Now the second part of the question. On the contrary, the view from that a person who is very highly developed, to a person who so far not yet developed. Well, of course, if a person except him intellectual abilities, for some reason there is still a huge selfishness, maybe he’s not interested in what everyone is doing there the rest that seem like ants to him. However in practice people with selfishness, quite a bit and most importantly, modern development, especially the development of the future, it will include gigantic in scale projects. These projects are feasible. only in the case of collective participation in them, collective interactions, including in research. Therefore small a club consisting of five people, he simply will not master these projects to do. Let them have brilliant ideas that everyone else understand, but how they will explain all this to the rest, and how can this project be brought to the final stage? And any project – take there a flight into space to some star – well, dozens million people will participate in this. Or is there a building some fundamentally new power plant that will take energy from the sun and settle down next to the sun at the same time. Billions will go. The closed club of intellectuals is simply these projects will never be realized, they will boil in their own small environment and be proud of how smart they are – and that’s it, real they will not have accomplishments.

Wasserman:

– And I remind you that Aristotle Nikomakhovich Stagirsky is two half a millennium ago said: man is public animal. This is usually interpreted in the sense that each of us brought up in society, each of us learns everything from society, down to how to eat with a spoon and how to talk, but there is still one side of the matter that Alexey Sergeyevich has now touched upon. A namely, the division of labor increases its productivity. therefore each of us in society can do for others and, accordingly, to receive from others incomparably more than he could make and get alone. Therefore, man, no matter how high he is nor was it developed, it is still beneficial to remain a member of society. And those, who do not understand this, like those who call themselves now dolphins among anchovies, they are doomed to barrenness of all their steps.

Kravetsky:

– Not only is it beneficial to interact, it is also beneficial for others to educate. So that they understand your ideas, well, or at least to to have someone to talk to.

Wasserman:

– The field of education is a separate issue. I think that to her we will be back at the next meeting.

Call from Konstantin:

– Hello. I would like to ask such a question. only you what they said about small groups of people, obviously in something occurring, yes. And they said that, in principle, they are practically can’t do anything. I think they can do the most important thing in this situations – they can be determined with goals. For myself and for the main masses of people. And people who are inferior to them in development will definitely go the way you need. And it’s very bad.

Wasserman:

– No, I have to say that to decide on the goals for society in On the whole, as world experience shows, only society as a whole can. Moreover, in every society there are always many small groups putting forward their goals, but only one of them succeeds in coinciding with the mood of the whole society. This, by the way, is very good. noticeable in the revolutionary era when it simultaneously occurs many parties, each calling for its own, and then when the revolution is over, analysts invariably establish that the one whose party to the greatest degree won embodied the intentions of most of society. Moreover, these intentions existed in society long before the revolution.

Kravetsky:

– And then, here’s another interesting question – does it have any of its own goals. And what are these goals that society does not include as a whole in yourself? What is the goal of buying a yacht? Well, yes, he will achieve this goal. Eating at expensive restaurants? Well, yes, too. And where will it be is his intelligence ultimately applied? He didn’t get smarter for just to eat tasty?

Call from Vladimir Mikhailovich:

– Good afternoon. What do you think, why is it created humanity?

Wasserman:

– For me, as an atheist, it is clear that humanity is not created, but created. And it was created as a result of completely natural processes that have no purpose at all. therefore the goal is what we set for ourselves. And we have to not to talk about why mankind was created, but where it should go.

Kravetsky:

– Here I can also join the words of Anatoly Alexandrovich, but I still want to add on my own behalf. Goals are in fact, what a person feels in his head. I just I’m extremely simplifying it so that it’s clear what I’m talking about. Atheist can to say that this part of the brain that dictates the goal to him, she developed evolutionarily. The believer, if desired, can say that it is God through this part of the brain that communicates with him. But, nevertheless, for those and for others the physical state of things is one and the same. Them someone living inside their head is talking about why they seek what they want. This is how a person comprehends goals. Moreover, if the goal in the world, alas, we do not have the opportunity find out, so we assume that it is not.

Call from Anatoly Ivanovich:

– Hello. I respect you very much for your work, for your this thinking is all right … There should not be unemployment in general, each person must process himself. Should not have us, so that the state there paid someone, this should not to be. But please, I beg you very much about this – report this is to Vladimir Vladimirovich and our dear government – let they will look at the economy of the 50s when we crawled out of this devastation, when we were broken, torn, broken, and we built the strongest economy in the world. And now all this has collapsed … Really, they do not want to be good for the people? And for them it will also be well. And even if they command all their lives, but let the people live, give people work and let people be independent – everyone human. Why? Because when I was young – and mugs were, and we went to evening school, studied everywhere, worked, we all time circled. And we gave some plans, some engaged in innovation … All young people were at work. A What is being done now? After all, young people do nothing at all. I’ll I beg you – well, you convey your thoughts to the government. Here are yours wonderful thoughts! And everything will go fine. In 3-4 years we we will restore the economy and the people will live perfectly!

Wasserman:

– Well, if Vladimir Vladimirovich invites me to a conversation, I will tell him I’ll say all this. But Dmitry Anatolyevich is unlikely to talk to me invite, because, if not he, then almost all of him environment, including most of the current government, made up of people who faithfully believe in absolute freedom of the individual and therefore, considering the existence of society impossible.

Kravetsky:

– The life that our esteemed listener described in the 50s years, in my opinion, really was much closer to the most harmonious existence, which I hope will be with us all. Mugs, work that is interesting, global goals, worthwhile over society, education, theaters – it’s all the fullness of life, and not one fragment of it. Some, maybe now financially easier, but in general, before, in my opinion, we were nevertheless closer to the bright the future.

Call from Igor:

– Hello. You have some kind of too technocratic approach to society … Maybe, just going back to your thesis that society has no goal, it’s just like going somewhere, locally some goals arise, locally they canceled, well, here it goes and goes – and thank God. But in that sense, as an example from Buddhism – this is when a person is immersed in meditation, immersed – immersed – well, okay. Came out of her – also good. Did not come out – not fate …

Wasserman:

– Well, the question is serious. If in a nutshell, we come technocratically because both in basic education and in training technology …

Kravetsky:

– And about the goals, their presence or absence, we had in mind Naturally, physical reality, in which there is a society. It is not inscribed, this goal, in the structure itself the universe. But society, of course, can usually have even there is a goal. Moreover, a goal is a thing that, in principle, exists only in humans. If we talk about our of technocracy, we, as technocrats, understand very well that a computer is just a tool, it cannot say where us move in what way and what we want. No it’s exclusively people can say. The computer can be fast for us. count, moreover, he will quickly read those algorithms that a person will come up with and, based on those assessment criteria the effectiveness of the calculations that a person will tell him. Man here how time is in the first place, but not a computer.

Call from Arthur:

– Hello. Tell me should we overestimate at all our, so to say, goals in science and in general in life, as I see that, the farther, the progress is as if going to worsen, at least least human health. It seems to me that everything goes to the fact that a person moves less, feels less fully. And in In this regard, all progress is aimed at ensuring that the person does not move, sat at home in a confined space and all the amenities he would have been like would be served. Maybe we should overestimate the goals of the development of science on the study of man himself, perhaps, the development of space, etc. A everything about comfort, shouldn’t it be taboo somehow, whether?

Wasserman:

– If you will, I’ll start from afar. During the first world war in the English army found that after the introduction of helmets, protecting the head, the number of injuries to the head increased markedly. It seems to be strange. And, meanwhile, everything is quite clear. Earlier almost any hit in the head just killed, and now it’s just hurt. Similarly, the impression of a massive decline health with the development of progress arose primarily because Now progress ensures the survival of those who previously in similar circumstances he was just dying. As for the study anatomy, physiology and other things, yes, of course, their most detailed They study and in this matter tremendous progress has been made. But those methods of medicine, those methods of sports training that are now put into practice, they are achieved, first of all, thanks to the development of completely different sciences. Roughly speaking, in order to go to disposable syringes, it was required to develop not only medicine, but also chemistry, and polymer technology.

Kravetsky:

“Even a simple example.” If we take almost all centuries for a thousand years before modernity, average life expectancy, in at best, it was about 30 years old. Now in Europe the average life expectancy of 80 years. With the fact that before many more died in infancy, and now most babies survive …

Call from Michael:

– Good evening. Anatoly, I constantly listen to you. That sometimes performs in the evening on your radio Chubais. Could you all his catchy words about what was or should be Russia to refute? You and I all know that everything is not as he says …

Wasserman:

– You see, I’m not sure that it will be possible to organize ours with I will meet him live, and this is not necessary. In the end of the end, and I have many publications in places other than meetings with Chubais, and my guest is also a very famous publicist. So that you can just get acquainted with the performances of Chubais, with the speeches of Kravetskoto, with the speeches of Wasserman and decide who of us is right.

Call from Andrey:

– Hello. I believe that the main thing for all mankind – this is not self-destruct, not self-destruct, we need take care of our universe, about our home … Because here we are gas and we extract oil, we cut the forest … The main thing for us is not to eat ourselves … That’s about this is worth considering.

Wasserman:

– Clear. Well, this is not a goal, it is a boundary condition. I.e, this is one of the walls of that corridor within which we have meaning to seek goals.

Kravetsky:

– A necessary, but not sufficient condition.

Call from Victor:

– Good afternoon. Now a friend spoke and mentioned the name Chubais, I also heard him. Well, it’s on the edge of science fiction, all that he says it’s all not true, to put it mildly. Hence I think, that our youth should throw everything that he says overboard. I want to tell you something else. In 1958, in the USSR in the city Stavropol, where I live, is free in barrels in stores wooden black caviar was sold – 32 rubles per kilogram. Tomatoes cost 7 kopecks, cucumbers – 3 kopecks. Meat – 13 rubles per kilogram. And so I would like to ask these wise men who today they rant, how is our country for 13 post-war years in 1958 was already at such a level of abundance of everything and everything? I I’m not talking about bread, butter …

Kravetsky:

– Unfortunately, I cannot answer for those people who invited to ask this question. Moreover, I myself am the same question I ask these people on occasion … The only more or less intelligible The answer I received, more precisely, the two responses I received. The first is this is all deception and untruth (but, this is not an answer, this is a departure from the answer, we we understand that this is true). And the second answer – but there was no freedom (which is also a very strange and peculiar answer for me).

Wasserman:

– And I’ll just add that it’s not just Chubais who needs to be blamed. TO Unfortunately, we’re so unlucky that in a row the country was led several, to put it mildly, incompetent figures. And just like three in a row catastrophically lean years led to a fall remarkable in all respects tsar Boris Godunov, from which is now remembered only that he was slandered his political opponents and three consecutive barren leader led to the fall of the Soviet Union. From which so far, fortunately, not only what was slandered on him was remembered political opponents. It is hoped that the competent leaders will sooner or later lead to fruitful years.

Call from Dmitry:

– Hello. I know about you for a long time and looked at you repeatedly … you seem to be a good person, but I’ll tell you this a story. I am from a family spoken by the Soviet government. It’s in the 30s years was. My great-grandfather was evicted to Siberia, in Narym, in the summer clothes. Dug pots dugout. They had five children. Two children died from tuberculosis. My grandfather was lame and he lived for 90 s odd years. When I was born, I found my great-grandfather alive and he told me told a lot. And showed. We come from rural Cossacks, we grew wine and wheat. We had two plots of land of 5 tithes …

Wasserman:

– Excuse me, our broadcast is ending already, so we, if let me answer you …

Kravetsky:

– The fact is that here, of course, everyone will be sorry their relatives. And, if relatives suffered, outside depending on how fair this was, he would this is not good, but society as a whole is important statistics, not specific people. If statistics show that in principle most people feel better naturally we will regret those who it got worse, but we cannot refuse for the sake of it more progressive device.

Wasserman:

– And I will add that, according to the calculations that my colleagues and I carried out in recent years, a new transition to that brighter future can be carried out peacefully, so that no one is hurt. we very sorry for those who fell victim to, first of all, the fact that we the whole country went along an unknown path, now we are this way We know better and try to get around the graves. Well, now we have to go saying goodbye. All the best.

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