A photo from open sources
There is such a doctrine, it is called futorology. IN Encyclopedia said that the name came from the Latin words futurum – future. Science itself in the broad sense is a body of knowledge about the future of our planet and of humanity, and in a narrower, applied – is engaged approximately by trying to predict what awaits us both soon and distant future. Moreover, if, as historians say, their science does not have a subjunctive mood, then everyone who respects himself futorologist certainly begins the forecast with a reservation. Like, if everything will develop further, as it has been so far, then with some the degree of probability can predict this and that. Otherwise it also called linear extrapolation. However, even such precautions do not save experts from annoying mistakes. because that the current world has clearly lost its ability to linear development. He had far from always developed according to a linear law; just in the old days, revolutionary, spasmodic changes, radically changing the vector of development did not occur so often. However, both then and now anticipate all sorts of revolutions in it turned out far from always specialists. So, in the time of Louis one of the first comprehensive futurological forecasts was 18th century French historian Jacques-Louis Favier; where did he do it commissioned by the monarch himself. However, neither he himself nor his customer sleep neither in spirit knew of the impending Great French Revolution, the fall of the Bastille and other troubles. Similarly, at the end of XX centuries the whole Institute of Marxism-Leninism “slept” not only collapse of the USSR and the entire socialist camp; his employees are not were able to foresee even the closure of their own institution in the very soon. This is partly due to the so-called objective reasons: some unexpected political events, the collapse an economy that forecasters have nothing to do with, natural disasters, imperfections in forecasting techniques, etc. However, quite often reasons also influence forecast accuracy subjective; First of all, the so-called human factor. To start with the fact that the person making the forecast, how as a rule, has its own point of view on this problem. AND perforce adjusts the available data to your concept. Besides Moreover, the forecast itself can fundamentally change the situation. There you are good example. Imagine that a certain famous scientist – a professor, and even better an internationally renowned academic, will suddenly announce in hearing about the near financial and banking crisis. News right there pick up the media. And what will happen? Everyone will run to take their savings from banks, thereby provoking this, allegedly predicted, crisis. This is the effect of the so-called “self-fulfilling prophecies.” But even if such experts do not make provocative statements, quite often they fall into the trap of idealizing people. After all, forecasts are usually are made for a certain “average person”, which in nature does not exist. We are all very different, although in some cases and behave predictably the same. Even Leo Tolstoy said once: “The source of all the troubles that people suffer from is that they want to foresee the future first for themselves, then for the family, then for the people. “And no matter how the figures of Marxism-Leninism try remake humanity, to ensure that in the first place it was public, and then personal, so they don’t have anything happened. As before, everyone is seeking his own benefit. Although sometimes it may well lead to a common misfortune. How does it turn out American biologist Garrett Harbin tried to demonstrate such a simple example. Imagine a peasant, he writes, who drives his cows to graze on a common meadow, that is, on community land. His fellow villagers do the same. For the time being time everything goes fine. But over time, the herd grows, and the size and meadow resources remain unchanged. And once there comes a moment when the load on the meadow becomes critical: new grass on it barely manages to grow back. A little more and the meadow will be trampled the cow herd is clean. However, when our peasant there is an opportunity to have another cow, he is most likely will do so. And at the same time he will reason like this. Another one the cow will bring me more milk, which means specifically my income will increase. As for the public meadow, unless it wanes from another cow? But if he thinks so with a dozen of him fellow villagers, the fate of the meadow is deplorable. So in a couple of years already everyone the peasants will have nowhere to feed their cows, they will all be ravaged. Theoretically, the situation is clear. However, similar crises, ending in ruin, happen in our society regularly and in thousands of options. Everyone hopes that this time their misfortune somehow personally passes … However, sometimes some subjects knowingly trying to get better at the expense of others. For example, in a novel Alexander Belyaev “Air seller” described as one person wanted to privatize the air of the whole planet. Idea of course fantastic, yet: how people living in different countries share among themselves the natural wealth of the planet? Is there any way to devote to each his own part in fairness, without cheating? .. For several years back at an international conference held in a japanese city Kyoto, the so-called Kyoto Protocol was developed. is he determined the rules by which people should in fairness really share the air of our planet. The essence of reasoning, underlying the protocol is as follows. We all have an atmosphere living on earth, total. But people in different countries are poisoning her. differently. For example, in the USA or in Western Europe the industry is well developed, a lot of transport, and people in these many countries live. And together they release into the atmosphere large amounts of carbon dioxide, exhaust, smoke and soot from factory and factory pipes. And here, say, in Africa and the people lives less, and industry there is poorly developed, transport too small, therefore, and industrial emissions into the atmosphere are small. AND in fairness, air pollution should pay more those with a more developed industry and higher standard of living. A the money received should go towards improving methods purification of the atmosphere, and to improve living standards in the underdeveloped countries. It would seem a good idea, but nothing really came out. United States, followed by several others developed countries refused to sign this protocol. Explanations everyone found his own: one is more like it if the air charge will be taken from each resident of a particular country, others offer to charge it, given the territory of the state, still others would like to be in the role of sellers, and they are offered the role of buyers … But the essence, quite simply speaking, is this: why pay when you can not pay? .. And so far the good remain intentions are only on paper … Sometimes, nevertheless, the situation is “resolved” as if by itself. But much more often this neglect leads to tragedy. And therefore, whether we want it or not, the development of the situation on the future needs to be somehow predicted, the president believes International Academy of Future Studies, academician of the Russian Academy of Education Igor Vasilyevich Bestuzhev-Lada – one of the most famous domestic futurologists. At the beginning the current XXI century I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada wrote: “It is possible with full reason to talk about the maturing of the next, Fourth World war. The beginning of the 21st century recalls the beginning of the 20th century. Fuel so much material has accumulated that about 1904 will follow 1914, that is, from 2004 to 2014. If not earlier … “How so, you ask, humanity somehow managed without the third world war, and then immediately they prophesy the fourth? Igor Vasilievich clarified this discrepancy as follows: – In the 60s of XX century I wrote the manuscript “Third World War.” In my scenario 60 thousand Soviet tanks in five columns moved through Europe, Asia and Africa and brought America to its knees … I didn’t understand then that World War III was already in full swing and that it also didn’t similar to World War II, as the First is not similar to the Franco-Prussian. It was a cold war. However, there was enough blood then: Greece, Korea, Vietnam … But the main battle was the race for supremacy in space. It began in 1956. We decided to inflict a deadly strike – launched a satellite: all the cities of America were under our cap. But around the same time, the Americans started the program Apollo, and by 1969 everything had been decided: an American walked along The moon, and only the Lunokhod visited us. As for the fourth world war, then according to Bestuzhev-Lada, it began not even September 11, 2001, but even earlier. And again, this happened unnoticed by most of humanity. After all, war terrible primarily human loss. And we started to lose people without any military action. To humanity normally developed, it is necessary that two parents have, according at least three children … Previously, there was a certain social a mechanism that forced the family to have more children. Representatives the younger generation from youth helped parents lead economy, and at the end of the life of the older generation guaranteed him comfortable old age. So until the XX century lived 99 percent of people … And then villages began to disappear, an increasing number of people moved to live in cities … And then a man found himself in a completely different setting: he and he could live happily without children. Now many believe that the child breaks the career of mothers and complicates the lives of fathers. Mankind has lost the need for family and children; quantity the population in many developed countries is declining sharply without any war … And this, by the way, is fraught with a change in balance population. The first “bell” rang in Lebanon. Political the stability of the country was kept at parity between Christians and Muslims. Christian President, Premier Muslim ministers – half of those and half of these. However fertility among Christians began to decline. Decades later christians left a third, and Muslims began to master quarter after quarter traditionally Christian areas. What turned into a 14-year-old bloody civil war. This was, in the opinion of Bestuzhev-Lada, the beginning the fourth world war, unlike any of the previous motives, neither by nature. The bottom line is: some degenerate, while others nowhere to go because of the large population in this region, and they begin to move to other countries. The result of the crowd migrants have already filled England, Germany, France … And expansion continues – after all, in third world countries there are still about billion people who can’t find application in their homeland. And they will continue the conquest of Europe and North America. We have catastrophic situation in Siberia and the Far East. There are more and more hands from China. Moreover far from always the development of territories proceeds in a purely peaceful way. Terrorism has now reached such a scale that it can disorganize even a country like the USA. Recall the terrible shock that experienced the population of the superpower after September 11, 2001. The Americans still have not recovered from this blow. A Al Qaeda, meanwhile, threatens to strike an even more terrible blow with the use of weapons of mass destruction – nuclear, chemical, biological, finally, computer. Hackers paralyzing communications and the monetary system can damage the economy no less than an atomic bomb. In response to this, naturally a response may begin – anti-jihad. In this scenario, very there are few chances for victory on one side and very many for colossal destruction and death of billions from both. … and yet even themselves futurologists do not always believe their own conclusions. They are not predict the future, and try to discern emerging issues and ways to solve them. “Figuratively speaking, we take our hands off the steering wheel, press on gas and try to guess when and where the car will crash, “- reveals the secrets of his craft I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada.
Africa War Time Life Crisis Moon USA Economy
