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Nick Bostrom, Director of the Institute for the Future of Humanity Oxford University Provides Better Predictions artificial intelligence research community (AI) in his new book Superintelligence: Ways of Development, Dangers, Strategies. ”
Here are the combined results of four reviews of AI researchers, including a survey of the most cited scientists in this field, in total in 170 respondents.
10% believe that the intelligence of robots is equal to human reason by 2022; 50% believe that this will happen in 2040, and 90% agree that robots will become smarter than people somewhere by 2075 year.
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Human machine intelligence is defined as “one that most human professions can perform – at least typical of people. ”
According to this definition, we should not be surprised at such predictions. Robots and algorithms are already squeezing the global market work force. Work with routine tasks becomes digitalized: farmers, telemarketers, stock traders, credit staff institutions, lawyers and journalists – all these professions are already felt jerks in the back from their new automated colleagues.
Bostrom doesn’t consider routine replication intellectual activity. He talks about intelligence in combination with intuition and logic – this type of mind can know and feel around the world, coping with its uncertainty. Most interesting in achieving a human level of intelligence is not itself achievement, but what will happen next. After the cars can to argue and improve themselves, their limit can only be SkyNet
In this logic, superintelligence is defined as one that “substantially exceeds the cognitive work of man in all areas of interest. ”
10% of scientists believe that superintelligence will appear in a couple of years; 75% of respondents believe that this will happen in 30 years.
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Tesla inventor and CEO Elon Musk warns that superintelligence cars are arguably the greatest threat to human existence. “I really hope that we are not just biological loader for digital superintelligence what, to Unfortunately, it is becoming more likely, “says Musk.
However, the best minds dedicated to these technologies, predict the end of man’s intellectual superiority already to mid-current century.
“Success in creating AI will be the biggest event in history of humanity, “writes theoretical physicist Stephen Hawking,” but it’s also may be the last event in the history of mankind. ”
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