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European Saxo Bank publishes five Shocking Predictions for 2013. “Shocking predictions” are unpredictable events that are sometimes called the “black swan” (by the same name book by Nassim Taleb), that is, unlikely political and economic phenomena, the degree of probability of which negligible, but if they happen, then their consequences for global economies and politics will prove to be very significant.
“We have been publishing this review for over 10 years and hope that it the real value to readers is to highlight key events and risk factors that sound too strange and even “shocking”, but in fact their probability is much higher than It seems that their potential impact on the market and investment income in the new year is really large (and often unfavorably) “, – commented the chief economist of Saxo Bank Steen Jacobsen.
In the run-up to 2013, experts are most worried about the combination an unprecedented “smug” calm, risks in macroeconomic policies and the rapid growth of social tensions that jeopardize the political and ultimately account financial stability.
“На закате 2012 года большинство аналитиков ждут роста S&P500 by 10% in 2013. None of them predict a decline – I don’t remember such carelessness since 2000 “, – notes Jacobsen.
DAX will lose 33% and drop to 5000
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DAX will lose 33% and drop to 5000
The top German DAX stock index was one of the most successful stock indices in 2012 since the economic giant of Europe strengthened more confidently than most of the rest of the eurozone countries, despite the continental crisis and declining activity in China. Everything will change in 2013 as the economic downturn in China will continue to gain momentum, thus putting an end to growth German industry. This will lead to a significant reduction. value of industrial shares amid stagnation of income and decline profits of major industrial players such as Siemens, BASF and Daimler Such market stress will undermine consumer trust and as a result domestic demand, which will become especially noticeable in retail sales. Given that domestic demand is not can offset the decline in exports, Chancellor Angela Merkel will lose a lot of votes on the eve of the German elections in III quarter, and as a result, a deteriorating economic situation will hinder her re-election. Weak economy and uncertainty about the new government will provoke the fall of the DAX index to 5,000, then there is a 33% year on year basis.
Nationalization of major Japanese manufacturing companies electronics
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Nationalization of major Japanese manufacturing companies electronics
Japanese electronics industry being a source of pride The land of the rising sun, is declining since its already ahead of South Korea’s thriving electronics industry, Samsung remains the main pride. Key decline factor industry – too much focus on domestic market, this leads to a high fixed base cost due to extremely high standard of living, pensions and a strong yen in Japan. Cumulative loss of $ 30 billion over the last 12 months ending September 30, 2012, for Sharp, Panasonic, and Sony combined, significantly undermine their creditworthiness, and the Japanese government nationalizes electronic industry in style déjà-vu, just like the US government was helping its automotive industry. Lack of nominal growth Japanese gross domestic product in eight of the last 16 years and the consequences of aid packages have forced the Bank of Japan to consolidate target value of nominal GDP. Bank of Japan will increase its balance sheet up to almost 50% of nominal GDP to restrain inflation and weaken the yen. As a result, the dollar / yen will fall to area 90.
Soya will rise in price by 50%
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Soya will rise in price by 50%
Bad weather in 2012 caused serious damage global crop production, and we fear that it will continue to play its unfavorable role during sowing season and growth period in 2013. In the USA, the final stock of soybeans, although increased slightly by the end of 2012, still in danger proximity to a nine-year low. So tough new prices soybean crop, especially in contracts with redemption in January 2014 for Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures vulnerable to any new weather disasters, whether in the US or South America (which are now the largest global manufacturers) or in China (the largest global consumer and importer). Increased demand for biofuels, in this case soybean oil, reflect the demand for biodiesel. It will also play a role by pushing prices higher if worries about delivery will be felt again. Speculative investors who have reduced their positions in soybean sector by two-thirds at the end of 2012, they will be ready again open, and such a combination of technical and fundamental purchase in run can push prices even higher by about 50%.
Gold will adjust to $ 1200 per troy an ounce
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Gold is adjusted to $ 1200 per troy ounce
The power of US economic recovery in 2013 will surprise market and especially gold investors who in recent years set the tone in the market, making yellow metal extremely sensitive to forecasts of global interest rates. Revised Forecast for American economy coupled with a lack of physical growth demand for precious metal from China and India – both countries are fighting with weak growth and rising unemployment – provoked large-scale closing positions on gold. In fact, this was a consequence of the decision US Federal Reserve to Reduce or Completely Stop Further Purchases collateral and government bonds. Hedge funds switched to side of sellers, and once an important level of $ 1,500 will be broken, the phase of mass liquidation of long positions will begin. Special this applies to investors in stock exchange investment funds, which have accumulated record gold reserves. Gold will have time to fall to $ 1200, before central banks, especially emerging economies, eventually intervene to take advantage of low prices.
WTI Oil Reaches $ 50
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WTI Oil Reaches $ 50
US energy production continues to grow faster forecasts, which was originally due to advanced technologies production, such as in the shale oil sector. American WTI oil production is growing steadily, and given that its reserves already reach a 30-year high, and export options are limited, WTI oil prices will again be under pressure and fall to $ 50 per barrel. Weaker than forecast global growth exacerbates this process, provoking an unexpected decline in world oil consumption and Brent oil prices – global reference point. Suppliers led by OPEC countries and Russia will react with great delay, because their members are extremely needing income to pay for even larger state costs, do not dare to reduce production, only strengthening glut.
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