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UN Intergovernmental Panel on Change climate until recently was an organization known only in circle of specialists. But there has recently been an environmental sensation on based on her next report.
Sensational report
This report attracted the attention of the world community with conclusions about that the person did not prevent, but brought the next climate disaster. Current generation living in relatively normal conditions are likely to catch only the beginning of climate change. But the next generation will have to adapt to life in other climatic realities.
One of the most controversial findings is based on calculations showing that even stopping greenhouse gas emissions will not change environmental situation. The average air temperature will be constantly rise for at least three more decades. So to the middle of this century, the weather anomalies of summer 2003 will become normal and will be repeated more often. Then temperature anomalies, quite possibly provoking a new ice age!
Another subject of research by the Intergovernmental Group became the famous “critical two degrees.” It is for this according to experts, the first temperature can begin stage of climate disaster. Amazing but despite reduction of emissions in recent years, climate rate changes are only growing.
You can hold the two-degree temperature bar until as long as the concentration of carbon monoxide (carbon dioxide CO2) in air will be below 450 ppm. Now this indicator fluctuates around 400 parts, so before the climate catastrophe just a few steps left.
Why is there no glaciation?
According to environmentalists, the expert report should serve as an impetus to development of a new international climate agreement. But the conclusions UN experts only stirred up a new discussion around global warming phenomenon.
For a long time it was believed that human activities became affect nature from the second half of the XIX century. Exactly then the industrial revolution began, steam engines appeared, streets began to be lit by gas lamps, and streams poured into the atmosphere carbon dioxide (the result of fuel combustion). But separate climatologists argue that human impact on nature started a few millennia ago. Moreover, it is thanks to ancient humanity and first man-made emissions the greenhouse gas climate of our planet remained warm, and the onset the new ice age was delayed indefinitely.
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Interglacial periods last about 10 thousand years, and modern the period – the Holocene – is already 11 thousand years old, with signs the onset of global glaciation has not yet been observed. If analyze the climate of past eras, then to the beginning of industrialization, i.e., in the middle of the XIX century, the average temperature should have been at three degrees below! And then the formation of glaciers could begin.
Why didn’t glaciation occur? Study of air bubbles, preserved from ancient times in the ice cores of Antarctica, shows that at first the carbon dioxide content is gradually declining, but at the border of the 8th millennium BC. e. it is unexpected stabilized, and then began to increase. In a few For millennia, methane concentration has also increased.
Climatologists believe that this was due to the beginning of intensive human agricultural activities. It is 8 thousand years old back people learned to grow barley, wheat and other species cereals. Plowing the fields, farmers destroyed forests, increased layers of charcoal, this provoked an increase in concentration carbon monoxide. And with the beginning of the Bronze Age, 5 thousand years ago, ubiquitous rice cultivation began, requiring waterlogging land, and as a result the area of marshy land increased – source of methane.
So the agricultural activities of our ancestors could give those same 2-3 degrees of heat that prevented the onset ice age and ultimately allowed humanity achieve current scientific and technological progress.
Why expert evaluations of even such an authoritative organization, like the UN, cannot bring the necessary clarity to forecasts climate change? Maybe it’s to blame conspiracy theological version of events, resulting in another nasty environmental scandal Climategate.
Climatgeit
It all started with the fact that an unknown computer cracker gained access to Group emails and documents Climate Research University of East Anglia. Correspondence turned out to be so interesting that he sent some letters environmental journalists.
It was then that revealed that famous climate researchers adjust the available data to the theory of “catastrophic global warming. “Some took it as proof of a kind of scientific scam undertaken by supporters global warming, others began to draw conclusions about a conspiracy between Western governments and transnational monopolies.
So the theory of global warming has been damaged, and now any evidence of a new manifestation of the greenhouse effect may perceived by the public as a conspiracy theological version.
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Climategate media bomb explosion significantly affected position a number of countries on emission reduction measures greenhouse gases. However, long before the “Climategate” were authoritative opinions have been voiced that the threat of global warming is not only greatly exaggerated, but also justified by incorrect methods.
A chain of research leading to the conclusion that global warming is caused by human activity, inevitably falls into the hands of politicians and financiers who take further fateful decisions. This is how it is formed public opinion that in order to avoid catastrophic consequences humanity around the world must spend trillions dollars to reduce greenhouse emissions.
Such decisions always affect many commercial groups, from oil and gas corporations to refrigeration manufacturers equipment, and it would be naive to believe that each of them is not will lobby its economic interests.
Unsurprisingly, it’s very difficult for an ordinary person to understand intricacies of climatology, ecology and politics. One of the most The unpleasant consequences of “Climategate” is that in society a negative attitude towards climate scientists begins to take shape. Scientific arguments lose weight, while proponents and opponents of global warmings resemble ordinary religious sectarians who believe only a set of their own far from flawless arguments.
What are we waiting for?
The Climategate scandal undoubtedly shook the position “climate extremists,” who believe that after a few years, temperate latitudes will hit hurricanes carrying a red-hot air of tropical deserts and highlands.
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Today prevailed the point of view contained in the last part report of the Intergovernmental Group at the UN, that humanity, seems to greatly exaggerate its ability to influence climate.
So what happens in nature? Global warming, the onset of a new ice age or minor changes weather conditions?
Story line with a mysterious computer cracker who revealed to the world a secret clique of sinister scientists and corrupt politicians, has long been included in conspiracy theological bestsellers and Hollywood blockbusters. However, it all came down to a report with alternative explanations of the real observable increase in average annual temperatures. Long-term forecasts still nobody gives us …
Oleg FAYG
Time Global Warming Climate Ice Age
