Petersburger Alexander Zakharov – an engineer who calls himself crisis analyst, has been involved in more than twenty years emergency forecasting. 
Photo from open sources Natural and technological disasters become regular. Rescue work requires more than a billion dollars a year. Now, if it were possible to foresee misfortune in advance – how many human lives would be saved, how much money saved! Alexander Zakharov estimates the success of his activities from 95 to 98% accurate hits. Given that a much less difficult task weather forecasts has a reliability not exceeding 65%, the prophet’s self-esteem should be recognized as incredibly high. However if they’re engaged in serious verification of the results of his predictions, it is only occasional and separate departments. So what are objective data? In late June, Zakharov posted on the site warning: from July 4 to 12 there will be severe flooding in the North Caucasus or in the Krasnodar Territory, Yakutia, Altai. July 3 at Petersburg channel TV-100, he confirmed the forecast. July 4 at Heavy rain began in the Krasnodar Territory for several the following days, a three to five-month rainfall fell from floods in the Crimean region affected 24 thousand people in Gelendzhik – 7 thousand, the total number of victims – 172 people. July 10 at TV program “X-versions. Other news” on the all-Russian channel He reported TV-3 (and repeated on July 13) about a new flood strip from 15 on August 25 in the same areas of the Krasnodar Territory that suffered in July. On the 22nd flooded the village of Novomikhailovskaya. In June, the crisis analyst sent to the head of the Federal Air Agency Transport Alexander Neradko in response to his request forecasts plane crashes in the second half of the year. September 12 was listed as one of the most dangerous days. It is on this day in the north of Kamchatka An-28 plane crashed. How do they react to these forecasts interested people? Usually – no way. March 10, 2011, for three days before the Fukushima nuclear disaster, Zakharov brought his schedules to the office of the regional branch of the Ministry of Emergencies and gave the duty officer on receipt. On the eve of the crash of the Polish plane near Smolensk, he arrived in Consulate General of Poland and handed over his materials, convincing: something must be done, they say …
Become famous – come your know-how researcher does not open. The essence of his explanations is this: every disaster accompanied by the release of tremendous energy, which accumulates, and there are signs indicating its concentration. how fever indicates inflammation hidden from the eye in the body, and the mass death of birds, the emergence of dead fish, the disappearance of bees, the discharge of whales to the shore and other environmental disaster gives disaster forecaster material for systemic analysis. With the total interconnectedness of all phenomena in nature, there is no nothing random: even the side number of the aircraft and the name of the ship serve for Zakharov as initial information for the forecast. Understanding I don’t have just how Zakharov’s forecasts are made. once together with him we visited the General Directorate for Emergencies situations and civil defense of St. Petersburg. Took us Deputy Head Vladimir Tyra. – We do not need a forecast of dangerous days in general, – he objected to my companion, – and specifically where, when and what will happen. – But this requires collaboration, – the forecaster countered, – your statistics, initial data on objects of interest. – We are a budget organization, we have this work resource is not provided. You have already been tested in fire Institute and emergency management under the government of St. Petersburg. But somewhere people changed, somewhere the work died out. Therefore, there are no results. Farewell, Vladimir Tyra wished Zakharov recognition and expressed hope for new meetings. Like, man, achieve success, but here when they recognize you, come, maybe we will use yours achievements. But … you don’t even have to be a forecaster to be sure say: with this approach it would not be better. I was obliged personally test the ability of Zakharov. September 26, he wrote me predictions for the first week of October. In short, their essence: from October 1 to 8 will be collapse of man-made disasters, including several aircraft crashes. I’ve been following the news all week. Bottom line: on the 1st, planes crashed under Anapa and in Switzerland, the 6th – in Sudan. The same week occurred floods in Spain, ships collided in Hong Kong, poisoned people in Irkutsk and in Germany, burned down a refinery in Saratov and food factory in the Novgorod region, a landslide in China destroyed school, California faced 47 cars. Justice for the sake of reservation, doubts about the high accuracy of forecasts I still have Zakharov: a) He noted on October 1, 4 and 8 like the most disastrous days. In reality, this was only day 1 October, the rest are usual for the week; b) Scale the listed events are still different: if we discard the fires, where relatively few have suffered, the picture will average out; c) What is general, “average” background of disasters – maybe before and after highlighted of the week, roughly the same thing happens (for example, September 29 in Ugra the plant burned down, this fire, according to reports, is stronger than all October); what is the general criterion for distinguishing catastrophes from incidents? If you enter it, it may turn out that at the beginning October there were no catastrophes at all; d) Zakharov assured that after a tragic week from October 9 to the end of the resonant month there will be no more incidents. However, the following days were torn artillery shells in Orenburg, showers claimed the lives of residents Derbent … Given all these reservations, the authenticity of the October forecast may not reach the declared value of 95%. On those my questions Alexander Maratovich answered: scale detail incidents are a separate big question that we simply don’t have opportunities to discuss in a relatively small newspaper space; all of October is generally more eventful than the previous month, therefore, they say, unpleasant events continue to occur. Further clarification of the situation in October, according to Zakharov, is as follows: the days of local disasters will be October 15 and five days from 18 to 22 October – there may be earthquakes, landslides, torrential flows, fires, explosions, transport accidents.
Life Fires
