A photo from open sources
Director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia Roman Wilfand came up with at the request of Gazeta.Ru, climate weapons and immediately explained why it cannot be applied. He also told how humanity is in really trying to control the weather and why even young cyclones are too tough for him. Speaking of July, Villefand noted that The weather in Moscow is characteristic of this latitude.
– June was pretty cold. Will this year be real warm summer?
“I will tell you what the summer will be.” This is unconditional. Temperature yesterday was 6 degrees above normal normal values for July 1. it it’s just super fly! Of course, this is not equatorial heat. But, my dears, we do not live on the 25th parallel and not even on the 42nd, but on 55th. Therefore, for our latitudes, the average July temperature in the afternoon is 22-24 degrees. This data is for 135 years of observation.
“But most of June was cold and rainy.” Was it summer, when everyone wore raincoats and boots?
– Let’s remember Pushkin Alexander Sergeevich. And his famous:
“What is our northern summer, the caricature of the southern winters, will flash and not: it’s known, even though we don’t want to admit it. ” historical summer, normal. Not the tropics, yes.
– And yet, can we imagine a fantastic option developments and suggest that cold June is the result use of climate weapons, for example?
– You can talk about this: 40-50 years ago everyone was afraid of this. But look: the UN resolution has long been adopted, all countries of the world signed that they would not use climate weapons. it unacceptable in the first place. And secondly, even if we fantasize, see what happens. For example, we know that ozone absorbs ultraviolet radiation. If it weren’t for this thin layer of ozone in the lower stratosphere (22–25 km), then, in general saying life on Earth would be impossible, radiation would burn everything living. The question is, at the household level: is it possible make such a hole without the ozone layer over the territory the enemy?
– Really possible?
“And here it is.” It turned out that this hole can move and eat the likelihood that she will soon be in that country, which conceived her. Funny huh? Now the world community banned the development of climate weapons.
– We figured out the ozone hole. But you can disperse the clouds, we know about it. Is it possible, for example, to manage large-scale cyclones and generally the weather?
– To disperse the clouds, yes, you can. It’s pretty harmless there impact, small. Condensation nuclei are emitted; they consist of silver iodide, liquid nitrogen and very often cement. Around these chemical reagents accumulate droplets of water, build up, increase in volume and finally the droplets become so big that traction force, diffusion force becomes less than the force gravity. And these drops fall in the form of rain, but before protected territory. There is a cloud, and in it, for example, 100 km from Moscow, from the place where some events are held, they suddenly inject these reagents. In half an hour or an hour, the rain pours over the territory where there are no events. And already comes to the venue, so say dehydrated cloud.
This, of course, is good for Muscovites, but not very happy for residents Moscow region, on which, in fact, this rain falls.
– And if you try to do so nationwide or cities?
– More serious things are impossible. You cannot change, for example, trajectory of a cyclone or anticyclone. Do not scatter or dehydrate all clouds if the front goes to Moscow. No reagents can to do this. Because the energy of the atmosphere is not yet comparable with the one that man produces. For example, the energy of a young cyclone, just developed, more energy of five to six atomic the bombs that were dropped on Hiroshima. And such cyclones, young and adults, several hundred at the same time on the globe.
Therefore, to my great happiness, now a person cannot manage the weather.
Even if we wish to book the weather, someone will say that wants clear and hot weather, for example, and I’m so much more for the rains, so that there are no forest fires. Well, so we are all and quarrel …
Director’s press conference held at Interfax Hydrometeorological Center of Russia Roman Mendelevich Villefand
From the end of the week, comfortable summer weather will be set in Moscow – Director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia
In July it will be hot, but not like in 2010, the rainfall deficit expected in the northwest, in the Volga region and in the south of the European part countries; in combination with elevated temperatures, this can lead to fires.
From the end of the week, comfortable summer weather will be set in Moscow, said the director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia Roman Wilfand.
“From July 5 in Moscow, an increase in temperature is expected, at night above 10 degrees of heat, in the afternoon plus 24-26, on the area to 27 degrees heat, but also a gradual increase towards the end of the week, at the beginning next week, 23-28 degrees of heat is expected, “said R.Vilfand at a press conference in the central office of Interfax in Thursday.
The Director of the Hydrometeorological Center added that today and tomorrow at the territory of Moscow and the region of precipitation is not expected, afternoon columns thermometers will rise to 23-25 degrees of heat, at night – to plus 10-12 degrees.
“From next week in Moscow will be quite comfortable summer weather “, – noted R.Vilfand.
According to him, the whole of July will be hot in Russia, but the repetition abnormally high air temperatures in the summer of 2010 will not be.
“We forecast July with temperatures above normal, and the amount of precipitation is expected to be near and less than normal, but not at all we expect the repetition of 2010, “said R. Wilfand.
In general, he said, the temperature in July in Russia is expected “near and above the norm.” “In the European part of Russia, the temperature will be above the norm by 1-1.5 degrees. It will be especially warm in Northwest region, “said R. Wilfand.
He noted that along with an increased temperature background precipitation deficit is expected, in particular in the North-West federal district, in the Volga region and in the south of the European part countries.
“The combination of elevated temperature and precipitation deficit suggests increased fire hazard in these regions, “- said R. Wilfand.
He also said that the beginning of July in the European part of Russia is already turned out to be hot.
“In early July, the temperature exceeded the norm by 5-6.5 degrees, since for 136 years of instrumental observations in Moscow daytime temperatures in July are 22-24 degrees Celsius, “- explained the head of the meteorological center.
According to R. Wilfand, June 2014 in Russia became one of the hottest for the entire observation period.
“As preliminary estimates showed, the past June was one of the hottest for the entire observation period, he competes with June 2010, “said R. Wilfand.
“Last spring was also the warmest in the history of our countries, “added R. Wilfand.
Meanwhile, according to him, in June the temperature background in the territory Russia was near and above normal, including a month was close to normal in terms of temperature and precipitation in Moscow.
“If you ask Muscovites what June was, they will say that cold and rainy. Nothing of the kind: the temperature in Moscow was about the norm. The average monthly temperature is only 0.3 degrees lower norms. Precipitation was near and below normal, to normal on the benchmark values we did not get 2 mm. Can’t be called this month cold and rainy, “says the director of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation.
R. Wilfand suggested that Muscovites estimate the weather in the city, comparing it with tropical regions. “You have to repeat often that we live in the temperate zone, “he said.
At the same time, as stated by R. Wilfand, weather conditions conducive to harvesting in agricultural regions, gross harvest expected to be above average perennial values.
“Now conditions for spring vegetation and winter harvesting favorable. On the Volga there is a moisture deficit, but for cleaning winter is even a positive fact. We predict that the gross yield the harvest will be significantly higher than the average long-term values, “said R. Wilfand.
Director of the Hydrometeorological Center said that the harvest is expected to be higher averages for at least the last five years. “Collection more grain and leguminous crops expected than in the past year, and last year was quite fruitful, “- added R. Wilfand.
Answering a question about the situation in Siberia, where the flood occurred, R. Vilfand noted that the flood there ends, at the most difficult regions – Altai Krai, Altai Republic and Novosibirsk areas – the water level will exceed the mark for several more days flooding.
“Spring flood in north Asian is now ending Russian territory, in the north of the Ob, on some rivers of Yakutia. On the in some rivers it ends late, in some with three to five days ahead of schedule, “said R. Wilfand.
According to him, the water level in the most difficult regions is Altai Territory, Gorny Altai, Novosibirsk Oblast and now time exceeds the floodplain flood mark by 20 – 40 centimeters.
“This situation will continue for several days,” – said he.
“This year, spring flood in European territory it wasn’t really, it’s only now being implemented, “said R. Wilfand.
… On the accuracy of forecasts and fines for weather forecasters
During the press conference, the head of the Hydrometeorological Center also expressed opinion on the futility of fines for weather forecasters for incorrect forecasts, which will never be 100% accurate.
“What is the point of stimulating weather forecasters to give more accurate forecasts, fine them? Here you need to understand, with every decade the success of forecasts is increasing. Now the success of forecasts for the third day ahead is the same as 30 years ago on the first day. But Is it possible to achieve a 100% forecast? Never. No way”, – stated R. Wilfand.
According to him, it is possible to fine weather forecasters or even enter criminal liability for incorrect forecasts, however this is not will change the result.
“In order to give a forecast, we need to study the processes that occur in the atmosphere, create modern tools. But also in these cases there will never be super accurate forecasts, because the atmosphere is a chaotic system and the level of certainty can never be completely complete. And never will be it is possible to absolutely accurately measure the temperature, there will always be mistakes. Therefore, suppose the weather forecaster was fined or put imprison him, but what’s the point? After all, punishment is a preventive measure, they say, I’ve made a mistake, and so that it’s not a bad thing next time, we now we will punish. Nothing like that, will get out of prison and do the same most mistakes. So what’s the point of punishing? “Said R. Wilfand.
He noted that there is a need to punish the weather forecaster only in in the event that he “fell asleep or performed an incomplete calculation.” “Each an unrealized forecast of a hazardous event is exposed research, analysis. And not only those weather forecasters who done, but with the involvement of other specialists. If, God forbid, the weather forecaster did not perform the entire complex of calculations, he is to blame and deserves punishment. But over the past 10 years I have not had to hearing about it – weather forecasters are very responsible people. They are predict precipitation, rain, wind, but they themselves are not at all windy, very serious, “the head of the Hydrometeorological Center assured.
He said that at the moment a prediction error the weather for the day ahead is 4%. “That is, skill forecasts for the day – 96%. It gradually decreases with forecasting on the fifth day – the number of those who did not pay off forecasts of about 10%, “said R. Wilfand.
He clarified that the number of unsuccessful forecasts of dangerous phenomena is 8.5%, the success of such forecasts is 91.5%.
According to the head of the meteorological center, to increase accuracy forecasts a significant development of meteorological resources is planned. So in soon meteorological network in the Moscow region replenished with 21 automated stations.
“Our network of weather stations is now in quantity exceeds the network of Soviet times. Over the next 7-8 months it will be increased in the Moscow region by 21 units, “said R.Vilfand, specifying that 19 are currently operating weather stations.
According to him, the new complexes will be able to transmit information about weather with any time resolution, “at least every minute.”
“In addition, a substantial development of observational network. Firstly, meteorological radars are already installed in Dolgoprudny, information already exists, intensive work is underway on the assimilation of radar information, and its use as initial data, “said R. Wilfand.
Also, he said, significantly helps weather forecasters satellite information, which has recently been noticeable expands.
“In addition, some specific devices – it is assumed that they will be installed, the so-called wind and temperature profilers. While I saw them for the first time only in the Sochi area. There is a chance that they will be moved to Dolgoprudny, “noted R. Wilfand.
In addition, he said, next year could be held tender for a supercomputer that will increase accuracy forecasts.
“We expect the bidding process to be at the end of the next years, maybe a few months earlier or later. But the fact that over the next three years we will really supercomputer with resources exceeding current specifications in 30-40 times, of course, “said R. Wilfand.
According to him, he will not replace living people, but the accuracy of forecasts will increase significantly.
… On the pros and cons of global warming
The head of the Hydrometeorological Center also told reporters about possible the effects of global warming. In his opinion, it will lead to the destruction of infrastructure in permafrost regions, but the country will be able to reduce heating costs.
“Russia is most sensitive to global warming. The temperature will rise most rapidly in winter. Most negative consequences will be associated with the movement of the zone of eternal permafrost to the northern regions: all infrastructure in this zone, in particularly pipelines and gas pipelines, built on the principle of perpetual permafrost, but it turns out that this permafrost is not eternal, “said R. Wilfand.
He noted that in the event of global warming, permafrost will turn into a marshland.
According to the head of the Hydrometeorological Center, global warming has positive side. “Our country is northern. Energy issues, providing heat to business entities and the population are very tense, and with a warming winter climate, it will be some good for the country, “he said.
“These are the results of several studies hundreds of scientists, “- said R. Wilfand.
At the same time, the head of the Hydrometeorological Center of the Russian Federation emphasized that it is impossible to judge global climate change only according to observations in Moscow.
“When we talk about global change, no matter how big our metropolis was not a region or city, no need to match processes in it with global. Global processes suggest meteorological characteristics around the globe, “said he.
Altai Water Time Global warming Climate Climatic weapons Moscow, Russia
