One of the reasons for the Second World War unleashed by the German by the Nazis, it was their belief that the population is multiplying too fast. The leaders of the Third Reich seriously feared that because population explosion Germans fall into poverty, can not feed themselves, begin to starve and die out, and therefore planned an invasion to the East – to fertile lands. As we recall, their struggle for resources ended in a colossal massacre and destruction of dozens countries. Is this possible in the 21st century?
Malthus’s Mistakes
In 1798, an English priest and scholar Thomas Malthus published the book “Essay on the Law of Population.” No extra emotions, using city statistics, he argued that population is growing much faster than the means of subsistence created by him.
A photo from open sources
Malthus did not see this tragedy – on the contrary, showed that the mechanism of self-regulation of numbers exists on its own, manifesting in wars and epidemics. However, his theory did not give reasons for optimism: it followed that humanity did not destined to break out of the eternal cycle of violence, because only it, according to Malthus, provided a balance between natural aspiration human leave numerous offspring and possibilities of nature provide human needs.
On this idea, a whole cultural and ideological direction has grown, dubbed “Malthusianism.” Its essence is in striving limit fertility and thus prevent the growth of violence. In particular, it was suggested that sexual abstinence, prohibit early and late marriage, legislatively reduce the possibility of marriage among the poor, disabled and freaks. Two decades later, neo-Malthusianism appeared, whose adherents did not suffer from an excess of humanism and offered more radical measures – up to total forced sterilization of whole layers population.
A photo from open sources
In particular, it was suggested that sexual abstinence, prohibit early and late marriage, legislatively reduce the possibility of marriage among the poor, disabled and freaks. Two decades later, neo-Malthusianism appeared, whose adherents did not suffer from an excess of humanism and offered more radical measures – up to total forced sterilization of whole layers population.
Dictionaries characterize Malthusianism as an “anti-scientific system” views, “and such an approach to the theory of Malthus and his followers true, because in their calculations they do not take into account a lot of factors: redistribution of employment during industrial revolution, uneven income structure in bourgeois society, qualitative leaps in the development of production and rural households. However, Malthusianism became unusually popular in first half of the XX century, it was the basis of the theory the “living space” borrowed by the Nazis in Germany to justify their aggressive conquest plans.
All the calculations of Malthus were crossed out by the “green revolution”, started in Mexico in the mid 1940s. Latest agricultural pest and climate resistant technologies varieties of wheat, reasonable land use allowed Mexicans to short time to achieve food abundance and start exporting. The experience of Mexico was intercepted by other countries, and by the beginning of the 1970s the threat of hunger that tormented civilization for centuries has receded. Today you can be sure: agriculture is capable of feed everyone.
It would seem that Malthusianism should disappear along with theory “living space”. However, it is becoming fashionable again. Why?
Global problems
Modern Neo-Malthusians are well aware that the problems of XIX Centuries are a thing of the past. And yet they say that the threat of overpopulation remains, changing only the content.
The following arguments are given. Western civilization has managed to overcome the “sores” of the agricultural system due to the tough social modernization: the abolition of serfdom, the imposition of priority rights ownership, the destruction of community ethics in favor individual labor, the emergence of universities promoting quick knowledge sharing. Innovation pushed efficiency gains production that managed to meet basic needs population.
On the chinese beach
A photo from open sources
Eastern civilization came to a similar result with a delay of half a century, but used identical methods. Billions at the same time people are still not covered by Western values, their countries remain agrarian and poor, surviving through external assistance. Population there growing, which means that a situation will soon arise when civilization does not will be able to feed a useless horde. Food prices already jumped, and these are flowers!
Deficit is added to the problem of increasing the “excess” population fresh water. After all, it goes not only to utilities – water is required for sowing fields, steel giants, power plants, mining complexes. In some countries (for example, in Algeria, Japan, Hong Kong) fresh water is to import. Water is becoming an invaluable resource, and some futurists write that bloody wars await us for access to moisture reserves: for example, to Lake Baikal.
It’s time to die out
To cut the Gordian knot of accumulated problems, modern neo-Malthusians put forward the concept of the “golden billion”, gleaned from international environmental discussions of the late 1980s years. It is curious that the Soviet scientists came up with the concept, among them academician Nikita Moiseev, who at a meeting in Rio de Janeiro said that to maintain environmental balance the world’s population should be reduced to a billion people.
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Soviet scientists were embarrassed to say in what way to carry out the reduction, but instead they are always ready to speak out Neo-Malthusians. And the latter believe that developed countries should refuse to help developing, block their access to resources and knowledge, and take a number of stringent measures to limit birth rate.
The prospect of planting the Golden Billion concept looks frightening. In fact, it is proposed to arrange a high-tech genocide — and on a scale that even they couldn’t imagine leaders of the Third Reich.
Fortunately, not all experts are inclined to believe in the “golden billion. “Very indicative in this sense is the dispute that ensued between biologist Paul Erlich, who considers the introduction necessary drastic measures to reduce population, and economist Julian Simon, who believes that technology development will allow in perspective to provide a decent standard of living for any population strength: at least for a billion, at least for 100 billion.
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To prove his case, Simon suggested Ehrlich choose five types of raw materials, and if at least one of them has risen in price in 10 years, economist will pay 10 thousand dollars. Erlich gladly accepted bet and chose five rare expensive metals: tungsten, copper, nickel, chrome and tin. After 10 years, he was forced to give money publicly. to an economist because a rise in prices for rare metals provoked scientific research, engineers have found substitutes, and the need for listed metals plummeted, which ultimately led to reduce their value.
Reason for optimism
However, faith in technological progress is not enough. After all, the population it’s not growing in developed countries (in them it’s just shrinking, the only exception is the United States of America), and in the most beggars, where, moreover, the level of education is close to zero. Qualitative leaps in technology will not help pull these countries out poverty, and reduce their population through carpet bombing or total sterilization no one so far thank god going to.
So we still can’t get out of the “Malthusian traps “?
Our famous compatriot academician Sergei Kapitsa built multi-factor model of demographic growth and showed that humanity, like technology, is experiencing systemic quality leaps and after growth, which will continue for another 100 years, stabilizes at 12-14 billion people.
The Earth is quite capable of feeding such a number of people. What if we will not have enough resources, then there is always space, which we just started to master. The most active part of the population can send to colonize neighboring planets. And then it starts completely another story – galactic humanity, whose capabilities it’s hard for us to imagine today.
Anton PERVUSHIN
War Water Mexico USA
