A photo from open sources
I know many people who think that overpopulation planets will lead in the future to disaster (meaning so called the “Demographic bomb”). It really disappoints me mainly because rumors of overpopulation of the Earth are one of the favorite mythological fears of many scientists here for more than two centuries. The two most famous examples of fueling fears of overpopulation came from work Thomas Malthus in the 19th century and Paul Erlich in the 20th. Both scientists predicted future global disasters due to overpopulation, but none of their forecasts came true.
These scientists were not bad researchers, they just misused the scientific method. Human population continuously growing exponentially since 1650, this the period is the longest in the history period of the exponential population growth for any living organism. Ecologists and biologists can confirm that individual species experiencing an exponential increase in the number of individuals over several years reach the peak of the population, and then experience a crushing collapse. Malthus and Ehrlich believed that this must have also happened with view of Homo Sapiens.
Both Malthus and Erlich were mistaken in that they did not accept attention that people are not just a biological species in vulgar materialistic understanding, and the reason for the exponential the growth of the human population of the planet was not entirely biological (I mean, it was human ingenuity that allowed we constantly increase population size by improving medicine, health and agriculture). But if Malthus and Erlich is wrong, then who can offer a more scientific understanding demographic future of humanity? How long can we to support the growth of its population exponentially?
First, several population models were created in over the past two decades and they give us interesting data. But perhaps the most interesting studies have been recently published by a group of Spanish mathematicians in the Autonomous University of Madrid. They modeled trends human population of the Earth from 1900 to 2010. It allowed scientists to extrapolate these trends and make predictions for the future. They concluded that the world’s population will cease to grow by the middle 21st century (2050) and will stop at around 8-9 billion human. This prediction coincides with estimates and forecasts. United Nations Future Population Growth the planet.
Spanish researchers were able to make such accurate predictions, given the important trends in population changes, about which ordinary people may not know. For example, although human the population has recently reached 7 billion, growth were at their peak in 1963 (2.2% growth) and have a clear tendency to the slowdown, which continues to this day (in 2011 the growth was 1.1%). In addition, the total annual birth rate reached its peak in the 1980s and is still declining. And finally, in developed countries of the world the birth rate has already stopped (or is below) at the level of population reproduction (2.33 children per one woman). In fact, in the global dimension, the world’s population quickly moving towards inhibition at the level of reproduction (the figure below shows how global population growth and annual fertility rates are declining).
A photo from open sources
So what exactly causes the inhibition of population growth Of the earth?
The growth of reproduction of our species is not slowed down because we reached ecological boundaries. We reduce growing reproduction population due to rising levels of education, gender equality, rural to urban migration and control birth rate.
The population growth rate is directly dependent on the material welfare. The richer the country becomes, the slower it grows. its population. Because rich countries are able to provide the best education for men and women. When women get education, they thus gain access to participation in life society and building a career other than a “mother’s career”. Women from a rich developed country usually give birth to 2-3 children (or 0-1 children), as opposed to 5-10 children in poor countries. In the very But in developed countries, the tendency for women to have less and less fewer children are likely to continue. As a result and that is me not surprisingly, the birth rate in these countries today is significantly below 2 and tends to 1 in the 2030s. And it’s important to consider the fact that the number of countries in the world that have undergone modernization and accepted development model with equal access of women to education, has tendency to spread.
Another important reason for the slowdown in global population growth is migration from rural to urban, or urbanization. In 1900, every country in the world was inhabited predominantly peasant population. In rural areas farming is the main (if not the only) way earn a living. This production method provides important function for children: they can work on the farm. As a result there is an economic incentive to have many children. On the contrary, in In urban conditions, children are very expensive and do not carry any economic benefits because as long as they can themselves to provide for themselves, they are in school. It always leads to family size reduction in urban settings. And urbanization is like the global process cannot be stopped. Even at the most conservative estimates suggest that by 2030 about 60% The world’s population will live in cities. UN predicts expected about 70% of the urban population of the Earth by 2050 (which again is a rather conservative forecast).
Given that the developed countries of the world are already urbanized, the main way the migration of the population from rural to urban will occur in developing countries (see image below).
A photo from open sources
And finally, an invention (as well as cheap and easy access) to birth control is what changed Western world forever. Once the women of civilized countries got more control over their genital function, level playback there began to decline. Less Unwanted / unplanned children. This is why providing cheap and easy access to contraceptives worldwide is so important. IN coupled with increased female education and pace urbanization, these measures will soon allow all countries of the world to catch up with developed countries by birth rate (2.3 children per woman or lower).
Of course, all this (equal access to education for women and ongoing galloping urbanization leading to global fertility reduction) depends on the level of economic development in developed countries of the world. Without raising the standard of living of the population planets, the demographic trends that we observe today may not be realized. And to ensure economic growth in developing countries we must guarantee ourselves in global dimension transition to a new energy economy and avoid serious wars between nation-states.
Statistician Hans Rosling calculated that the development of such The script is likely. And I agree with him. If current economic development trends will continue, we should expect that the standard of living of an ordinary person in India and China (for example) will reach the same level as in the UK, USA and Japan in 2048 year. In addition, as noted by Peter Diamandis and Elon Musk, the transition to a new energy model is likely will happen over the next 20 years. This transition (from fossil fuel to predominantly solar energy) will not only provide us a clean and renewable source of energy, but will also make it more cheap and affordable. Finally, as Stephen Pinker explained in his the last book we live in the most peaceful time in human stories. After all, since 1945 in the developed world there have been no wars between national states. I am sure that this trend should continue.
Therefore, it is very likely that from today (2013) until By 2050, the world’s population is stabilizing. Women’s equal access to education and rapid urbanization will do the trick. Trend obvious: the higher the level of education among women and the more urbanized population, the smaller the family size. Bye current economic development trends will continue until the transition to new energy sources will be provided, and between developed countries of the world will not be military conflicts socially determined declining fertility trends will also continue.
Understanding the complexity of implementing all the factors involved in this transformation, it may seem that the situation is unlikely to be develop exactly in this scenario. But the key point is the fact that all these trends are very strong and are in full swing. Exactly therefore researchers of global demography from the Autonomous University of Madrid were able to draw such a confident conclusion from their mathematical models about future population decline the planet.
All this means that, on a scale of hundreds of years, the dynamics of global demographic change may actually look very steep sigmoid curve. Of course, in 2050 our Earth will be look completely different than today, and our predictive models have their limitations. But today, everything indicates that the planet’s population will peak and stabilize. Not less in a new world where there will be more energy, more geopolitical stability, artificial intelligence will appear and extraterrestrial human presence will increase, population indicators of our species may begin to change in the most unexpected way. A today we probably should be glad that Malthus and Erlich were wrong: there will be no demographic explosion.
Cadell Lust, “The Ratchet”
A life
