A photo from open sources
Researchers for the first time managed to find common ground in data from various models regarding Pacific behavior. The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific subject of heated debate. A new analysis suggests that powerful warming in the east of the equatorial region (i.e. El Nino) with an increase in atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases should get stronger. Dust storm caused by El Nino related the drought hit Melbourne on February 8, 1983. (A photo Australia Bureau of Meteorology / Trevor Farrar.) Research devoted exclusively to extreme weather extremes like El Nino 1997-1998, which influenced the whole world. Climate models diverge in representing the exact effects of warming on El Niño and his “sister” La Niño, which cools the named region. But when it comes to the most active El Nino and their influence on the overall picture of precipitation, the models, as it turned out, find mutual language. Wenju Tsai from the State Association of Scientific and Australia’s applied research and colleagues concentrated focus on the weather, not the ocean. They abandoned the standard El Niño definitions centered on the temperature difference Pacific surface between eastern and western parts equatorial belt, and focused on rains in the eastern parts of the pool. (East of the tropical pacific usually colder than the west, and the increase in water surface temperature by in the east only 0.8 ° C leads to large-scale consequences.) Scientists selected 20 climate models (half of the available disposal), which could reproduce heavy precipitation. FROM using these models they compared the frequency of extreme el nino in control period (1891–1990) with a warmer era (1991–2090). Although the total number of El Nino has decreased, 17 out of 20 models predicted an increase in the strength of El Nino, and moreover the average frequency of the latter has increased: earlier they happened every 20 years, and in the future we will have one extreme for a decade. Models say that in the east of the tropical Pacific warming will be more significant than in the west, and additional heat will bring the “pump” into combat readiness, generating strong storms. Even the relatively weak El Nino (strength and the weakness of this phenomenon is determined by the difference temperatures between west and east) are able to have a noticeable impact on precipitation. The first force of the coming El Nino will be tested on imagine, of course, Peru and Ecuador, but Southeast Asia and the southwest The United States is also not worth relaxing: it is a large-scale reorganization of the system of atmospheric currents. Recall in 1997–1998 El Niño caused $ 35 billion in damage to the US alone and killed an estimated 23 thousand people worldwide (floods in both Americas and Africa, tropical cyclones in the Pacific Islands, droughts and forest fires in Australia and Southeast Asia). Of course, such forecasts need the most thorough verification, but commentators welcome the approach itself, when in the focus of scientists were not climate events, but their human exposure. The research results are published in Nature Climate Change Magazine. Prepared by Nature News.
Australia Global Warming Peru USA
